Emerging Policy-The inflation problem has not gone away
This week’s interest rate meetings in the developing world are highlighting that despite slower economic growth, inflation remains a problem for many countries. In some cases it could constrain...
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Moody’s takes some pressure off Turkey
Moody’s disappointed a lot of folks this week when it failed to raise Turkey’s credit rating to investment grade. After Fitch upped Turkey on Nov 5 into the coveted top tier, hopes were high that...
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And the winner is — frontier market bonds
Global Investing has commented before on how strongly the world’s riskiest bonds — from the so-called frontier markets such as Mongolia, Nigeria and Guatemala — have performed. NEXGEM, the frontier...
View ArticleEmerging policy-Down in Hungary; steady in Latin America
A mixed bag this week on emerging policy and one that shows the growing divergence between dovish central Europe and an increasingly hawkish (with some exceptions) Latin America. Hungary cut rates this...
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Golden days of the Turkey-Iran trade may be gone
Global Investing has discussed in the past what a golden opportunity the Iranian crisis has proved for Turkey. Between January and July 2012 it ratcheted up gold exports to Iran ten-fold compared to...
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EM interest rates in 2013 – rise or fall
This year has been all about interest rate cuts. As Western central banks took their policy-easing efforts to ever new levels, emerging markets had little recourse but to cut rates as well. Interest...
View ArticleCorruption and business potential sometimes go together
By Alice Baghdjian Uzbekistan, Bangladesh and Vietnam found themselves cheered and chided this week. The Corruption Perceptions Index, compiled by Berlin-based watchdog Transparency International,...
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The BBB credit ratings traffic jam
Adversity is a great leveller. Just look at the way sovereign credit ratings in the developed and emerging world have been converging ever since the credit crisis erupted five years ago. JPMorgan has...
View ArticleEmerging Policy-More interest rate cuts
A big week for central bank meetings looms and the doves are likely to be in full flight. Take the Reserve Bank of India, the arch-hawk of emerging markets. It meets on Tuesday and some, such as...
View ArticleThe Watanabes are coming
With Shinzo Abe’s new government intent on prodding the Bank of Japan into unlimited monetary easing, it is hardly surprising that the yen has slumped to two-year lows against the dollar. This could...
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A yen for emerging markets
Global Investing has written several times about Japanese mom-and-pop investors’ adventures in emerging markets. Most recently, we discussed how the new government’s plan to prod the Bank of Japan...
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Asia’s ballooning debt
Could Asia be headed for a debt crisis? The very thought may seem ludicrous given the region’s mighty current account surpluses and brimming central bank coffers. But a note from RBS analysts Drew...
View ArticleEmerging debt vs equity: to rotate or not
Emerging bonds have got off to a flying start in 2013, with debt funds taking in over $2 billion this past week, the second highest weekly inflow ever, according to fund tracker EPFR Global. Issuance...
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Rupiah decline – don’t worry
Indonesia has just given the go-ahead for another leg down in the rupiah. It has cut its forecasts for the exchange rate to 9,700 per dollar compared to the 9,200 level at which the central bank used...
View ArticleEmerging policy-One cut, two steady
What a varied bunch emerging markets have become. At last week’s monetary policy meetings, we saw one rate rise (Serbia) and differing messages from the rest. Mexico turned dovish while hitherto dovish...
View ArticleZara not Prada to tempt emerging market shoppers
By Dasha Afanasieva Markets got a fright today when luxury goods maker Richemont reported stagnant Asian sales in the last three months of 2012. Richemont shares as well as those in its rivals such as...
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Hyundai hits a roadbump
The issue of the falling yen is focusing many minds these days, nowhere more than in South Korea where exporters of goods such as cars and electronics often compete closely with their Japanese...
View ArticleEmerging Policy-Doves reign
Rate cuts are still coming thick and fast in emerging markets — in some cases because of falling inflation and in others to deter the gush of speculative international capital. Arguably the biggest...
View ArticleIndian markets and the promise of reform
What a difference a few months have made for Indian markets. The rupee is 8 percent up from last summer’s record lows. Foreigners have ploughed $17 billion into Indian stocks and bonds since Sept 2012...
View ArticleBond investors’ pre-budget optimism in India
Ten-year Indian bond yields have fallen 30 basis points this year alone and many forecast the gains will extend further. It all depends on two things though — the Feb 28 budget of which great things...
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